Don’t Be So Sure: Why Your Assumptions Kill Deals

When was the last time being "sure" about someone's reaction actually helped you close a deal?

The Problem: You're Negotiating With Ghosts

The moment you think you know what the other side is going to do, you've already lost.

Most negotiators fail before they even start. They sit alone, rehearsing conversations with imaginary opponents:

Here's what I learned at the FBI: If humans were good at predicting behavior, we wouldn't need hostage negotiation teams in the first place.

You're not psychic. You're guessing. And that's not strategy - that's gambling with your outcome.

Tactical Empathy® Isn't Mind Reading

"The most dangerous negotiation is the one you don't know you're in." This is one of our Laws of Negotiation Gravity. But equally dangerous? The negotiator who thinks they already have all the answers.

Every assumption is a self-imposed hostage situation. You're not negotiating with your counterpart - you're negotiating with your own fears.

And what happens? You make premature concessions. You leave value on the table before anyone's even shown up.

That's not being realistic. That's surrendering without a fight.

Navigate the Maze by Walking It

A high-stakes negotiation is like a maze.

From above, you might think you see the fastest route. But what you can't spot are the hidden doors - Black Swans - tucked into apparent dead ends.

If you avoid certain paths because you've decided they're a waste of time, you'll miss the shortcuts that could change everything.

Real insight doesn't come from planning. It comes from engaging.

Don't Assume. Hypothesize.

The word "assumption" should be banned from negotiation vocabulary. Use "hypothesis" instead.

Why? Because a hypothesis demands testing. It keeps you curious. It reminds you that your job isn't to be right - it's to discover what you don't know.

You don't walk into a negotiation to prove you're the smartest person in the room. You walk in to uncover what matters most to your counterpart - especially when it surprises you.

Ask yourself:

Is your strategy built on facts?

Or is it built on what you think might be true?

Every negotiation should follow the same principles as good science:

Form a hypothesis about what drives your counterpart.
Test it using Tactical Empathy® - Mirrors™, Labels™, and Summary™.
Watch their reactions carefully.
Adjust based on new information.

Your goal should always be to leave smarter than you arrived.

Not every negotiation ends in agreement - but every conversation should make you more effective for the next one.

The goal isn't just to close deals. It's to never walk away empty-handed.

Reality Beats Imagination Every Time

If your preparation consists of guessing responses and censoring yourself accordingly, you're not preparing - you're sabotaging yourself.

Drop the mind-reading. Embrace hypothesis testing. Stay curious.

The negotiator who thinks they already know all the answers is easy to beat.

But the one who's listening, testing, and adapting in real-time?

That's the negotiator who uncovers the Black Swans - and walks away with the deal that nobody else could see.